Jade Palmer, Director (Infrastructure Valuations & Modelling) at Grant Thornton UK LLP , shared her industry insights with Clean Energy Pipeline on a number of the most pressing renewable energy market trends, challenges, and opportunities for the coming year.
At Grant Thornton UK LLP, Palmer leads a dynamic and growing team at the forefront of delivering valuation and modelling solutions for global clients enabling energy transition infrastructure.
With over a decade of experience in the industry, Palmer’s most recent work flow spans large-scale portfolio transactions, early-stage projects exploring cutting-edge technologies, and everything in between.
“A large proportion of our work remains in the energy transition space,” said Palmer.
“One trend we’re noticing is that the deals are at two extremes. On one side, there are massive portfolio-level deals, often multi-billion ones, where capital is deployed into a singular dead giving access to an entire pipeline, development team, and track record.”
“On the other extreme, we’re seeing smaller-scale projects where companies are dipping a toe into new technologies or novel solutions for the energy transition.”
Palmer highlighted that mid-sized projects—traditionally the backbone of renewable energy investments—have seen reduced activity over the past six months, particularly in the onshore wind sector.
Clean Energy Pipeline’s data shows a 21% yearly decrease in the number of standalone onshore wind projects (20 MW to 100 MW) being financed in 2024.
However, the total amount of standalone solar PV project financing deals (20 MW to 100 MW) in 2024 remained with the previous corresponding year.
Clean Energy Pipeline is currently in the process of putting together a complete annual global breakdown of renewable Project Financing, M&A, VC/PE, Capital Market, and Green Bond transactions, which is scheduled for publication in Q1 2025 and will be supported by Grant Thornton.
The relative decline in standalone renewables deals is largely due to market conditions, with listed funds trading at significant discounts to net asset value (NAV). As funds aim to rebalance, multiple assets entering the market simultaneously have created competitive conditions, affecting pricing.
As the renewable energy sector embraces larger, portfolio-based transactions, valuation methodologies are adapting to keep pace.
“You’ve got operational assets, assets under construction, and known pipelines to consider, but there’s also this ‘blue sky’ element—an unidentified pipeline tied to the track record of a development company and often also the service companies that go with that,” Palmer explained.
This shift is moving the sector from traditional asset-focused project finance to a hybrid approach, blending company and asset valuations. For valuation teams, the challenge lies in quantifying hypothetical potential and making it tangible.
Palmer suggests that unpacking these methodologies could provide readers with valuable insights into the evolving market. The increasing emphasis on “blue sky” valuation reflects a broader change in how investors assess opportunities in the sector.
Integrated Expertise for Complex Challenges
Grant Thornton UK LLP is led by over 240 partners and with more than 5,500 employees across over 20 offices in the UK.
Given the pressing need for energy transition solutions, Grant Thornton UK LLP continues to evolve its infrastructure practice to offer more integrated support across the transaction lifecycle.
“We’re continually innovating and finding new ways our integrated infrastructure valuations and modelling team can work together,” noted Palmer.
“The goal is to provide comprehensive support across the transaction lifecycle—from acquisition modelling and investment committee support to ongoing fund modelling and valuations.”
Collaboration with the firm’s net-zero advisory, economic consulting and public sector advisory teams has also enhanced its capabilities, particularly in regulatory and policy discussions. Grant Thornton UK LLP’s involvement in topics like locational marginal pricing and regulatory reforms has provided insights that bridge public and private sector perspectives.
Global energy transition solutions
Geographically speaking, Grant Thornton remains active in established markets like UK solar and European renewables.
Grant Thornton also has a strong presence in emerging markets across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region, where challenges such as regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical risks are counterbalanced by significant growth potential.
Palmer pointed to specific cases, including regulatory challenges in Chile and the dynamics of investing in African markets, as examples of the firm’s experience in complex environments.
Valuation models also need to account for shifting risk profiles as technologies mature and gain wider adoption.
The impact of these investments will be further amplified by dynamic cost structures within the clean energy landscape.
Solar panel costs have seen a 30% decrease over the past two years, while critical mineral and metal prices have sharply declined.
Conversely, equipment and construction costs for offshore wind have surged by 40% over the last year.
These fluctuations will significantly influence cash flow projections and profitability assumptions in discounted cash flow (DCF) models, requiring analysts to maintain a keen eye on rapidly evolving market conditions.
Furthermore, the integration of advanced technologies such as AI in project planning and optimisation, improvements in energy storage and grid integration, and advancements in offshore wind technology will further complicate valuations, demanding more sophisticated and adaptable models that can accurately reflect the potential efficiency gains and cost reductions brought about by these technological leaps.
As the renewable energy market continues to mature, Grant Thornton’s focus on integration, strategic insights, and adaptability positions the firm as a key partner for navigating the energy transition.
With end-of-year reflections and 2025 planning well underway, Palmer and the Grant Thornton team are poised to offer valuable perspectives on where the sector is headed.
“We’re constantly adapting to our clients’ investment strategies and finding solutions to the ever-changing environment,” Palmer concluded.
“It’s always great to collaborate on topics that are close to our hearts.”
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